中国经济转型过程中的人口因素

The Demographic Factor in China’s Transition

文章试图对25年来中国经济与人口变化过程尤其是人口因素在经济转变中的作用加以评估。在回顾与总结了这一时期人口变化的主要指标的基础上,然后通过介绍和使用两个“人口红利”的概念与方法,就过去25年中人口变化对中国经济发展的有利作用做出估算,并对未来人口变化,尤其是人口老龄化对经济发展的可能影响与机遇加以评估。最后,对中国近期人口变迁所产生的几项社会后果进行讨论。

Two and half decades ago, at the start of China’s economic reforms, overpopulation and rapid population were considered crucial obstacles to China’s economic growth. Such a concern over population growth has largely disappeared from the public discourse in recent years as China’s fertility has dropped to well below the replacement level. This article reviews major demographic changes over the last quarter of century, and evaluates the effect of population change on China’s recent and future economic growth. It introduces the concepts and methods of two demographic dividends, and provides results based on Chinese data. The first demographic dividend resulting from fertility decline is estimated to have contributed to as much as 15 percent of China’s economic growth between 1982 and 2000, but such a dividend will soon be exhausted. Rapid population aging presents another opportunity in the form of the second demographic dividend, but its realization depends largely on institutional contexts. Moreover, demographic changes in China not only affect Chinese economy but also result in profound social consequences.