上海市人口结构空间分布的模型分析

Modelling the Spatial and Structural Distribution of Shanghai Population

文章首先运用圈层距离法和GIS分析软件,在全国第四次和第五次人口普查数据中提取并获得上海市街道(镇)人口分布数据。基于多个测量人口分布的函数模型模拟,在对人口密度、出生率、死亡率、年龄结构及产业结构等空间分布及其变动情况作进一步的模型分析和曲线拟合比较后,发现测量上海市人口结构空间分布的最优函数模型并非负指数函数,而是Cubic函数。

Using circle distance method and GIS software, we obtain the detailed data on Shanghai’s population distribution at street/town level , based on the 4th and 5th Population Census. After the comparison of model analysis and animation curves about population density, birth rate, morality, age structure, industry structure and their variation condition, we can conclude that the best fitted model which reflects and measures the distribution of population in Shanghai is the Cubic model instead of the Clark model.