概率计算模型可能存在的问题——评《18世纪末至19世纪初婺源县的婚内节育》

Possible Weakness in Probability Calculating Model:Comments on Mark Elvin’s Research about Birth Control in Marriage from the End of 18 Century to the Beginning of 19 Century in Wuyuan County

《18世纪末至19世纪初婺源县的婚内节育》一文用构建生育模型与《列女志》中的有关存活儿子、结婚年岁和结婚年龄的数据相拟合的方法,得到十分可能存在的婚内节育现象的结论。文章肯定在该文这种概率计算模型方法的同时,指出其计算模型、样本资料处理和计算方法上存在的问题,讨论了这些问题对研究结论的影响,并提出建立更好模型的三条原则。

Mark Elvin established a procreating model to match the data about the number of sons alive, marriage years and primary marriage age from the local historic records and he came to the conclusion that there was likely to be a birth control in marriage. This article affirms the research method, points out its problems in calculating model, swatch processing and calculating method, and discusses its influences. Three principles to establish better models are suggested.