2005年云南会泽、文山5.3级地震短临预报及再认识

Short-term and Impending-earthquake Prediction of the Huize and Wenshan,Yunnan, M_S5.3 Earthquakes in 2005 and Its Postseismic Understanding

2005年8月5日、8月13日云南会泽、文山分别发生5．3级地震。震前，前兆各学科出现不同程度的异常变化，异常台项达30多项，并呈现非线性上升趋势。据此，震前对这两次地震做出了短临预报。震后对两次地震的震前异常做了进一步分析研究，认为异常主要分布在距离震中20～180km范围内，集中出现在震前2个月。水温异常对发震地点有一定的指示意义。

Two Ms5.3 earthquakes occurred in Huize and Wenshan of Yunnan Province on August 5 and 13, 2005 separately. Before the occurrences of the earthquakes, there appeared several subjects of precursory anomalies and more than 30 items of non-linear ascending trend anomalies. According to the characteristics of the anoma- lies, we gave the short-term and impending-earthquake predictions of two earthquakes. After the shocks we ana- lyzed their precursory anomalies again, found that the anomalies distributed mostly in the ranges of 20 - 80 km from the epicenters and appeared in 2 months before the mainshocks, and the water temperature anomalies could indicate the locations of the epicenters in some degree.