隧道围岩变形量预测的灰色模型应用比较研究

Study on the Gray Model and Its Application in Forecasting Deformation of Tunnel Surrounding Rock

隧道施工过程中的围岩变形监测是掌握围岩的动态信息、确保施工期间隧道稳定性的重要手段.围岩位移预测则是支护形式、支扩参数设计恰当与否和了解运营以后隧道长期稳定性的关键所在.传统预测方法有基于岩体力学理论的计算方法、基于实测值的拟合方法等,本文通过以实际工程原始数据列作为参考数列,建立围岩预测量测数据的灰色预测预测模型以及3种GM(1,1)改进模型,并通过比较结果及关联度分析发现,一般的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型适用于围岩变形量的短期预测,更新递增模型和新陈代谢模型在作较长期预测时,预测精度更高.

Tunnel surrounding rock deformation monitor is an important method for holding information of surrounding rock and controlling tunnel stability in the period of construction. Forecasting deformation of surrounding rock is the key to estimate shoring types, parameter and long time stability after beginning use. The classical method of forecasting deformation is based on rock mass mechanics or curves methods of the survey data. In this paper, a gray model and 3 optimized GM（1,1 ） methods are put forward, based on the survey data of the engineering and the gray theory. By analyzing the calculated results and the degree of relation, we can draw the conclusion that the GM（ 1,1 ） is fit for short-term prediction and the updating increasing model and the metabolism model have higher simulation accuracy in the long-term forecast.