城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估方法

A method for evaluating cities' ability of reducing earthquake disasters

城市防震减灾能力本身是一个涉及因素众多的复杂体系,对它的评估也是涉及到地震科学、社会科学和经济科学的交叉学科问题。本文首先提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念,把人员伤亡、经济损失和震后恢复时间3方面作为衡量城市防震减灾能力的准则;围绕这三个准则,从影响城市防震减灾能力的众多复杂因素中归纳出6大因素,并用一些简单、可测量的指标来代表这6大因素,建立起城市防震减灾能力指标体系;然后再分别建立这些指标体系中的各种因素或其子因素与评价三准则中的人员伤亡、经济损失和恢复时间的联系;最后,用灰色关联分析方法将3个评价准则综合成一个防震减灾能力指数。从而为城市防震减灾能力评估提供了一个较系统、完整的理论体系框架。城市防震减灾能力评价体系的建立能够对城市的防震减灾能力进行定量的评价,从而指导城市进行防震减灾努力的决策。

Cities＇ ability of reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors. Moreover the research on evaluating the cities＇ ability of reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake science, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of the cities＇ ability of reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated by three basic elements, the possible seismic casualty and the economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surroundings and the time required for recovery after earthquake. Based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating the city＇ s ability of reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and the recovery time are gained by utilizing the existing methods for assessing earthquake losses; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of the cities＇ ability of reducing earthquake disasters is presen- ted. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can be used to evaluate the cities＇ ability of reducing earthquake disasters quantitatively and the results will throw light on the decision-making in efforts for reducing cities＇ earthquake disasters.