近6年世界与我国男子田径竞技水平发展趋势的比较研究

Comparative Research On Male Athletic Performance Development Tendency Between Our Country And The World In Recent Six Years

以1999～2004年我国男子田径各项最好成绩和世界前8名平均成绩为基础,利用灰色理论的GM（1,1）模型方法探讨了6年来我国和世界男子田径项目的发展变化趋势.结果显示,我国男子径赛有7个项目、田赛有5个项目的成绩呈上升发展趋势;世界男子径赛有9个项目的竞技水平是上升的,而大部分田赛项目的竞技水平则呈衰退态势.

Taking our country male athletics＇ best achievements and the world first eight average achievements during the years 1999 to 2004 as foundations, the method of gray theory GM （ 1, 1 ） model is applied to discuss male athletics performance development tendency between our country and the world in six years. The results showed that 7 items of male track events and 5 items of the field events in our country displayed the developing tendency. Meanwhile, the athletic performance levels of 9 items of world male track events is ascending, and the athletic performance levels of the majority of world male field events items assume declining tendency.