基于自适应性学习的财务预警机理研究

Self-Adaptation Learning-Based Mechanism for Warning Finance in Advance

缺乏规范的理论机理是目前财务预警研究中的薄弱环节。通过界定基本概念,揭示了财务预警的柔性决策实质。吸收经济演化论的观点建立了企业的柔性生存模型,通过模型数值模拟结果分析得到了重要的财务柔性决策规律,基于研究建立的财务柔性决策的系统结构及其学习机理,提炼出了以自适应学习为核心的财务预警机理。分析发现,制定决策时的环境学习能力和预警策略执行中的自适应调整能力是决定财务预警管理有效性的关键因素。

The study of warning finance in advance lacks normative theoretical mechanism at present. The basic conceptions were defined. Naturally, the warning in advance is flexible decisionmaking. A flexible survival model for enterprises was developed, based on economic evolvement theory. Some laws of flexible financial decision-making are obtained through the numerical simulation. Mechanism for warning finance in advance centering at self-adaptation learning was extracted from the system structure of flexible financial decision principles and the learning mechanism. The analysis shows that the effectiveness of management of the warning finance in advance depends on the capabilities of circumstance learning in decision and the abilities of selfadapted ability in the execution of the tactics.