n+2状态马尔可夫模型在三峡电站电气主接线可靠性计算中的应用

Application of n+2 State Markov Model in Calculations of Main Wiring Reliability for Three-Gorge Power Station

电站电气主接线可靠性评估中存在大量相关事件,运用统一n+2马尔可夫模型可避免传统的基于独立元件的可靠性模型在计算电站电气主接线可靠性时出现误差过大的不足,实现电站电气主接线的充裕性、安全性等评估。从可靠性的角度计算、比较和分析了三峡电站电气主接线10种待选方案在不同方面的优劣,并对选择的实施方案进行了综合分析和讨论。

There is plenty of related incidents in the reliability assessment of electrical mare wiring of power station, to adopt unified n ＋ 2 Markov model can avoid the traditional error and defeat in calculation of electrical mare wiring reliability based on reliability model of hdependent element, and realize the evaluation of safety and abundance etc. for the electrical mare wirng of power station. The different aspects of advantages and shortcomings were compared and analyzed for 10 kinds of electrical msin wiring scheme of Three - Gorge power station from the point of view of reliability. The enforcement scheme was carried out iategration analysis and discussion.