北京市人工增雨效果评估方法分析

Different Methods to Assess Precipitation Stimulation in Beijing Region

用序列试验法、回归分析法、双比分析法和区域回归数值模拟试验方案4种效果评估方法对北京地区2001～2004年6～9月的37次火箭、高炮催化作业进行效果评估,并比较各种方法的优缺点.结果表明：①这4种方案统计结果均得到显著的增雨效果,平均增雨分别为：用序列试验的方法6.99%,用回归分析法30.68%,双比分析法20.11%,区域回归数值模拟试验方案13.37%.②误差分析表明,区域回归数值模拟试验方案产生的绝对误差仅为2.1%～2.2%,是一种较科学的评价方法.

The sequential analysis method, regression analysis method, double-contrast analysis method and regional regression numerical simulation scheme are adopted to assess 37 precipitation enhancement operations using seeding rockets and seeding artillery from June to September, 2001 to 2004. The comparison between advantage and disadvantage of different methods is made. The results indicate： ① when using the sequential analysis method, the regression analysis method, double-contrast analysis method, and the regional regression numerical simulation scheme, the rain enhancement rates are 6.99%, 30.68% , 20.11%, and 13.37%, respectively. ② The error analysis shows that the absolute errors using the regional regression numerical simulation scheme is 2.1% to 2.2 %, so it is a proper method to assess precipitation enhancement effectiveness.