中国财政支出与GDP之间关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究

The Study of Co-integration and Error Correction Model Between Fiscal Expenditure and GDP in China

利用协整理论对1952-2003年中国财政支出与GDP之间关系进行实证研究,研究认为:中国的财政支出与GDP之间存在双向的Granger因果关系,二者之间存在着相互促进的作用;中国财政支出与GDP之间存在着长期均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制;中国的财政支出对GDP的弹性小于1。

After making an empirical analysis on the fiscal expenditure and GDP in China from 1952 to 2003 with the co - integration tools, it finds that there is a two - direction Granger causality involving distinct mutual promoting effect between the fiscal expenditure and GDP in China, and the long term cointegration and short dynamic adjusting machanism between the fiscal expenditure and GDP in China. The study indicates that the elasticity of fiscal expenditure on GDP is lower than 1.