谁是世界杯“经济宠儿"?

Soccer and economy

世界杯激战犹酣。谁能最终夺冠?获胜国将会因此获得怎样的经济增长?荷兰银行经济研究部的学者认为,足球对宏观经济和金融市场的影响肯定不足以将一次衰退转变为繁荣,但不应低估它的作用。据历史数据显示,在世界杯赛事当年,夺冠球队所在国的经济增长速度总是会高于在决赛中落败的国家。荷兰银行经济研究部从经济层面和市场层面预测了哪个国家将会在世界杯赛事上夺冠, 以及随之而来的经济影响。标准普尔建立的1998年与2002年世界杯赞助商指数清晰地显示出世界杯给这些赞助商带来了什么。

Taking advantage of this summer's World Cup tournament in Germany, ABN AMRO Economics Department compiled several interesting reports on the relationship between soccer and economy. In the first March edition, the report tries to find out which team is the "economic favorite", that is, the country which should become world champion in order to maximize the impact on the world economy. After considerable analysis, ABN AMRO concludes that the "economic favorite" has to be a European country that matters and also needs a growth impulse. Italy and the host country Germany enter the final for the competition of the "economic favorite". At last. Italy wins out. ABN AMRO believes an Italian victory in the World Cup final would make consumers and producers more confident, which would translate into higher consumption and investment. In the following edition, the ABN AMRO economists go further to analyze the relationship between soccer and economy in the emerging markets. The basic conclusion follows: Soccer does appear to suffer when the economy is weak and to benefit from a rising economic tide, normally with a one-year time lag.