经济周期中段的美国经济——特征与预期

The U.S.Economy in the Mid of Current Cycle——Analysis and Forecast

本文分析了处于经济周期中段的美国经济的特征并据此作出预期。主要结论是:近期,美国经济将持续增长,但增速有所降低;通胀压力日益增大,但仍在可控之下,羡联储极有可能在6月份提升联邦基金利率25年基本点。8月份是否继续加息,要视新的经济数据而定。由于利率目标升到5．25-5．5％,将标志着美国货币政策进入紧缩周期, 所以美联储会持谨慎态度。

The article analyzes the features of US economy in the mid of the current cycle, and predicts its near future trends. It holds that US economy will continue growing but at a slower rate in the near future; Inflation pressure is increasing but still under the control, price level will not go up too rapidly; Fed could pause interest hike in June, and raise another 25 bp in August or September, entering tightening policy cycle, but will not go too far.