煤基燃料的经济性和风险分析

An Economic and Risk Analysis of Coal-based Fuel

随着世界石油危机再度显现,研发和生产石油替代品成为人们关注的热点。我国石油资源匮乏,煤炭资源相对丰富,大力发展以煤为原料的煤基燃料是解决能源安全供应问题的重要途径之一。本文论述了三种不同的煤基燃料——煤制油、煤制甲醇和二甲醚的市场潜力和发展趋势,并深入分析了其经济性和面临风险。与煤制油相比,甲醇和二甲醚具有明显的技术和经济优势。煤基燃料项目将面临国际原油市场价格波动风险、国内煤炭市场价格波动风险以及国家产业政策等风险。

As the crisis of petroleum appears in the world again, how to develop and manufacture the produce to replace petroleum becomes a hot topic that arouses people＇s attentions. Since it is short of oil resource and coal resources are plentiful in our country, to make efforts to develop coal-based fuel is an important way to resolve the issue of energy safety. The paper discusses three kinds of different coal-based fuel -- oil produced by coal, coal-based methanol and DME of market potential and developing trend, and then goes deeply in analyzing its economic and risk. Compared with oil produced by coal, methanol and DME have the obvious advantage in technology and economic. The project of coal-based fuel will face price risks both from the international crude oil market and the local coal market, and risks of RMB exchange rate and national industry policy.