应用负荷特性曲线由分量预测总量负荷的方法研究

Discussion on How to Forecast Gross Load from Component Loads Using Load Characteristic Curve

负荷预测是电力规划的重要内容,由分量预测总量负荷的负荷方法,如土地利用法和报装负荷推算法等,是一种负荷预测方法的重要类型。分量负荷之间的“同时率”取值是否准确,直接影响着该类方法的预测结果。本文应用负荷特性曲线叠加代替“同时率”的经验数值,从而提高由分量预测总量的负荷预测方法的准确性与合理性。

Load forecast is an important content in electric power layout, the methods to forecast gross load from components, such as ground utility method and calculation method based on the loads application etc, are the important types of load forecast method. What if the value of ‘simultaneity rate＇ between component loads has been decided correctly or not would give a direct influence to forecast result of these kinds of method. In this paper, the experience data of ‘simultaneity rate＇ used before is replaced by superposing load characteristic curves, so that veracity and rationality of the methods to forecast gross load from components have been increased.