水工边坡模糊可靠性分析

Fuzzy Reliability Analysis of Hydraulic Engineering Slope

在水工建筑物稳定分析中,岩土体介质的力学参数是非常重要的。目前,工程人员所采用的参数大部分是根据室内或现场试验取得的样本参数,对样本数据进行处理后,根据工程经验所确定的,对工程边坡稳定性分析带来了相当大的不确定性。利用概率理论和模糊理论来具体定量分析这一系列参数的不确定性,推导了统一的可以考虑加固等处理措施的统一功能函数,并将各种荷载作用体现在模糊随机变量系数中。并对西南某电站导流洞出口边坡进行了计算分析,计算结果表明该方法是正确且可行的。

The mechanical parameters of rock and soil mediums are very important in hydraulic structure stability analyses. At present, the parameters used in engineering are decided by laboratory test or field experiment through data processing of samples. The parameters obtained will bring uncertainty for slope stability analyses because these data are decided by experience. The probability theory and fuzzy theory are adopted in the quantification of the uncertainty of the parameters to deduce a unified function to consider the effect of strengthening and embody the effect of load in the fuzzy stochastic variable coefficient. The method is proven to be correct and feasible through an example calculation of the slope at the outlet of the diversion tunnel of a hydropower station in southwestern China.