过去20年气候变暖对我国冬季采暖气候条件与能源需求的影响

Impacts of Climate Warming on Heating Climatic Conditions and Energy Requirements over China in the Past 20 Years

20世纪80年代中期以来,我国气候变暖,尤其是90年代中期以来的显著变暖,对我国冬季采暖气候条件和能源需求产生了很大影响。论文以全国458个气象台站逐日平均气温为基础,对其影响进行了分析。依照《采暖通风与空气调节设计规范G(B50019-2003)》的规定,确定了采暖初(终)日及集中(过渡)采暖期的划分方法,并采用度日法分析了采暖强度。结果发现与1980年以前时段相比,1985—2004年以及1995—2004年间,我国集中采暖区和过渡采暖区的界线明显北移,尤其110E°以东地区北移最大达2～3个纬距;北方大部地区采暖期长度缩短5～15d,长江以南地区缩短最大达30d以上;北方采暖强度普遍减小200℃以上;理论上由气候变暖导致的我国北方地区冬季采暖耗能降低了5%～30%,长江中下游地区冬季采暖耗能降低了30%以上。

Since the 1980s,especially since the mid 1990s,the climate in China has been warming up,which exerted significant impacts on winter heating conditions and energy requirements in China.This paper analyzes the impacts of climate warming on winter heating climatic conditions and energy requirements in China during the past 20 years,based on daily mean temperature data from 458 stations throughout China.According to the definition of Code for Design of Heating,Ventilation and Air Conditioning （GBS0019-2003）,the start/end date for heating and central/intermittent heating region are defined.When we analyze the heating intensity,the degree-day method is selected.Comparing to the referential period （before 1980）, during the period of 1985 to 2004 and 1995 to 2004,the borderlines of central heating region and intermittent heating region were shifted northward obviously.Especially in eastern China（east of 110°E）, they were shifted northward by 2-3 latitude degrees.The heating length has decreased 5-15d in most parts of northern China and more than 30d in some parts south of the Yangtze River.Heating intensity decreased by more than 200℃ in northern China.Theoretically,the rates of energy saving for heating merely caused by climate warming are 5%-30% in northern China and more than 30% in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.