水资源稀缺条件下的水资源价值评价模型及其应用

Evaluation Model of Water Resources Value Under the Condition of Water Shortage and Its Application

水资源价值评价是水资源研究的重要内容。在水资源短缺条件下,水资源的价值计算显得尤为重要。在综述国内外水资源价值评价研究的基础上,提出建立模糊-灰色关联分析复合的水资源价值模型,并用其对北京地区的水资源价格进行了计算分析。结果表明,北京市目前各类现行水价均低于其计算所得的实际价值。

The water resources value appraisal is the kernel of water resources economic management.As the water resource crisis is worsening,the calculation of water resources value appears especially important.The progress of research in water resources value appraisal at home and abroad is summarized in this paper.The present water resource check computation theory can be classified into four kinds,namely,supply decided by demand,demand decided by supply,theory based on macro-economy,and sustainable development.The paper puts forward the fuzzy-gray correlation analysis model of water resources value by fuzzy comprehensive judgment based on fuzzy theory and gray system theory,taking into account the effect of natural environmental factors,social factors and economic factors on water resources value,by which water resource price in Beijing is calculated and analyzed for the 12 departments including entironment, domestic life,irrigation,electric power,hotel,petrochemical,press and so on.The results indicate that various actual water prices are lower than the calculated water value in Beijing at present.In order to remitting the water shortage in Beijing,economic lever can be used to adjust the water price in various trades in order that the water resources can be allocated more reasonably in Beijing.