火灾损失的灰色模糊预测方法

Grey-fuzzy prediction method of fire damage

火灾损失预测具有“部分信息已知,部分信息未知”的“小样本”、“贫信息”不确定性,用精确值来表示各种事件的概率是不切实际的,而用模糊数或预言变量来表示则显得更为合理。由于存在时间这一变化基准,还要综合考虑时间、成本、信息等要素对火灾损失预测的影响。鉴于此,将火灾损失数据序列看作是综合灰色量,建立了灰色-模糊模型来预测火灾损失。

The damage forecast has the uncertainty that ＂the partial information known, the partial information unknown＂, ＂the small sample＂, ＂the poor infrmation＂, because of many factors nondeterminacy. At the same time, it is obviously impractical to use the precise value to express each kind of event probability when carries on the forecast. But it is reasonably to express them with the fuzzy number or the prediction variable. Because of the existence of time change datum, we must consider synthetically the influence of time, cost, information on the fire damage forecast. This article consider the method question that the fire damage for the poor information is not determined in view of this factor.