电力系统连锁故障预测初探

A Preliminary Research on Power System Cascading Contingency Forecasting

近年来,连锁故障已成为引发电力系统大范围停电事故的重要诱因,有效预测可能出现的后续故障对于预防大停电事故的发生具有重要的研究价值。文章在深入分析连锁故障初期演变规律的基础上,提出了一种可进行后续故障预测的方法,它可有效计及前后故障之间的相互影响和连锁故障的累积效应,快速预测可能出现的后续故障。文中所作研究是为寻求预防大停电事故的有效方法的有益尝试。

In recent years, cascading contingency become important cause leading to large-scale blackout of power grids, so it is of significance for prevention of large-scale blackout to effectively forecast the following-up failure that could occur. On the basis of analyzing the evolution law of a cascading accident during the initial stage in detail, a method by which the following-up failure can be forecasted is proposed. This method can effectively take the interaction between previous failure and following-up failure into account as well as the cumulative influence of all happened faults, and rapidly forecast following-up failure that could occur. This research is an attempt to seek an effective method for prevention of large-scale blackout.