清代云南雨季早晚序列的重建与夏季风变迁

Reconstruction of Series in Later or Earlier Starting Date of Rainy Season in Yunnan Province and Evolvement of Summer Monsoon in Qing Period

根据以档案为主的历史文献资料逐年进行考订,复原了云南1711～1911年间的雨季早晚序列,并利用多种资料进行了检验。分析表明,云南雨季开始期年际和年代际的波动都较剧烈,还存在年代际尺度以上的长时间尺度波动。雨季开始期从18世纪初逐步转向偏早,19世纪又转向偏迟,到20世纪又偏早,这在一定程度上反映了夏季风的长期变迁。云南雨季开始期存在明显的准3年和11.3年周期,准3年周期可能和ElNino事件的准3年周期有关,11.3年周期明显和太阳活动的11年周期有关。同时发现,ElNino事件对云南雨季的开始期有重要的影响,在ElNino年云南雨季开始期主要为偏迟或正常,但这种影响存在明显减弱的时期,可能意味着ENSO事件对亚洲夏季风的影响存在某种震荡。

Based on year by year examination and correction of files-dominated historical documents and verification of various kinds of data, the later or earlier rainy seasons in Yunnan from 1711 to 1911 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious interannual and interdecadal fluctuations in the starting date of rainy seasons in Yunnan, as well as long-term fluctuations exceeding the interdecadal scale. It comes earlier from the beginning of the 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exist obvious quasi-3 years and 11.3 years cycles for starting date of raining seasons in Yunnan, the quasi-3 years might be related to the El Nino＇s quasi-3 years cycle while the 11.3 years being visiblely related to the 11 years cycle of solar activity. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the El Nino plays a very important role in the starting date of rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of El Nino. However, in the period when such influence weakens obviously, this means that ENSO may exert certain impact on Asian summer monsoon.