数量化理论在泥石流灾害预测预报中的应用——以吉林和龙市泥石流为例

Application of quantification theory in forecasting debris flows——Anexample of Heleng City,Jilin Province

和龙市地处长白山脉东北部,地质环境质量较差,区内常有泥石流、崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害发生。该市东城区具备形成泥石流的条件,泥石流发生频繁。2002年7月间,该市境内连降暴雨,日最大降雨量达69.8mm,导致多处暴发泥石流,造成较大灾害。文章根据东城区34条泥石流沟的调查资料,采用数量化理论对泥石流易发程度进行统计分析,建立了泥石流易发程度预测模型。计算获得的预测值与实测值相接近。

Helong City is located to the northeast of the Changbai Mountain with a had geology environment, where debris flows, collapse and landslide always break out. East zone of Helong City has a lot of valleys with the formal ion conditions of debris flow, and disaster of debris flow happens frenquently. In July 2002, the maximum precipitation of this area was 69.8mm per day, which caused the breaking out of debris flow in many laces and triggered a serious disaster. This paper establishes a debris flow predictive model with the survey data of 34 strips of debris flows selected, by using the theory of quantification statistical analysis. Using this model acquired a sort of predicted value which has a good agreement with the measured value.