致灾营力当量预报预警方法探讨——以山东省地质灾害-气象预报预警为例

Discussion on the causing ageuey equivalence of geological hazard their forecasti——An example of Shandong Province

山东省地质灾害-气象预报预警研究中,受重力滑块启发,并通过分析研究地质构造、气象条件及已发地质灾害规律,发现了致灾营力当量定律。运用该定律将岩性、构造、降雨致灾因素作用统一到坡度致灾作用上,编制专用软件。以0.25km×0.25km为计算单元实现了全省空间范围的致灾营力当量计算。根据降雨诱发地质灾害危险性级别致灾营力当量阈值,追踪出地质灾害危险性预警级别。依据预警级别,发布地质灾害-气象预警信息。

The geohazard process can be related to gravitional sliding block. On the basis of analysis of relationships between geohazard and geological, climatal factors, the hazard causing agency method was developed. The agency from rock type, structral geology and rainfall were added to the force from gradient of slop, producing the geohazard warning theory. The compute program was written to do the geohazard forecasting, taking 0.25km×0.25km as basic pixel.