关于需求相关性和过剩需求积压影响“牛鞭效应”问题

The Research of Problem of “Bullwhip Effect” Result Fvom Positive Serial Correlation in Demand and the Backlog Of Excess Demand

需求信息的不确定是供应链管理中产生“牛鞭效应”的最主要原因之一。本文着重分析了当需求呈正序列相关性以及允许过剩需求积压的情况下 ,对“牛鞭效应”的影响 ,结论表明这两者及两者之间的相互关系都会在一定程度上引起“牛鞭效应”。

The uncertainty of demand information is one of the main causes arising the＂bullwhio effect＂. In this papeo the positive serial correlation in demand and the backlog of excess demand is emphasized to explain the cause of the＂bullwhip effect＂. And the conclusion is that the two matters and their correlation do in some degree bring the＂bullwhip effect＂.