信息条件下路段出行时间可靠性的计算

Computing the Link Travel Time Reliability with Information Provision

出行时间可靠性是微观出行决策的重要考虑因素,结合信息提供来求解出行时间可靠性是当前构建高级出行者信息系统的基础工作.根据出行时间可靠性的定义及其概念模型,研究了模型中路段行驶时间和路段选择概率两个重要的参数.对于前者,利用随机过程的数字特征确定了路段行驶时间的近似迭代公式;对于后者,则以Logit模型为基础,通过考虑出行者对出行路线信息储备的异质性,建立了基于信息的Logit模型,从而得到了出行时间可靠性的完整模型.仿真实例表明了模型的适用性.

The conceptual model of travel time reliability was firstly established according to its definition, in which route travel time and probability of route choice are both critical factors. The stochastic process method was employed to find out the route travel time. The traditional Logit model was rectified when information is considered as a parameter. Based on the complete model, a simulation example was given to demonstrate the availability of the model.