摩尔定律的困难与前景——从摩尔第二定律谈起

Difficulties and Prospects of Moore's Law:Beginning with Moore's Second Law

分析了摩尔定律在制造成本、光刻等关键技术,以及物理基础思想等方面的困难和制约。评述了为维护摩尔定律的基本原理学术界在分子电子学、量子技术等方向上的工作,评析了摩尔定律在未来电脑、网络及微电子装置等前沿高科技产业发展中的启发和引导价值,认为摩尔定律的基本思想目前仍有效且适用。

Moore＇s Law has difficulties in key technologies such as production cost and semiconductor microlithography,as well as in basic physical ideas. This paper gives comments on researchers＇ endeavors to defend the basic rationale in the fields of molectroics and quantum technology, and examines the instructive value of Moore＇s Law in the development of high-tech industries such as future computers, Interuet and micro-electronics equips. A most important point is the basic idea of Moore＇s Law is still effective and applicable at present.