中国粮食进口贸易中“大国效应”的扭曲及实证分析

The Distortion of "Great Nation Effect" in the Grain Import Trade of China and Empirical Analysis

本文利用近年来中国小麦国际贸易的统计数据,运用格兰杰因果关系检验对中国粮食进口贸易中的“大国效应”进行实证分析。结果表明,中国粮食进口量的变动是影响国际市场粮食价格变动的重要原因;国际市场粮食价格的变动却不是影响中国粮食进口量变动的原因,说明中国的粮食进口贸易中存在着扭曲的“大国效应”,最后,在本文结论的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。

Using the statistical data about the grain import trade of China and Granger causality test , this paper analyzes the ＂great nation effect＂ in the grain import trade of China. The findings show that the grain import quantity in China is the important reason of the changing of the grain price in the international market. However, the grain price of international market is not the important reason of the grain import quantity of China. This findings illustrate that there is a distortion of ＂great nation effect＂ in the grain import trade of China. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions.