中国与东盟服务贸易协议:一种博弈框架分析

The Game Analysis of the Agreement on Trade in Services between China and ASEAN

建立了一个将中国与东盟服务贸易发展描述为具有相联系的两阶段博弈模型,并将“未来不确定性时期”这一因素引入分析之中,指出中国与东盟对《服务贸易协议》实施情况的预期会影响当前服务贸易谈判的进程。双方应尽快完善各自内部服务业市场发展所须法律和制度环境,消除各种未来不确定性因素,才能达成《服务贸易协议》,促进双边服务贸易的发展,进而满足各自经济发展的需要。

Having established an interrelated two-phase game model, which describes the development of trade in service between China and ASEAN, the paper introduces ＂the shadow of future＂ into the analysis,and comes to the conclusion that the expectation of the implement of the Agreement on Trade in Services would influence the current negotiation on it. According to the paper,both sides should perfect the law and system which are indispensable to the development of their internal service market as soon as possible,and eliminate all uncertain factors. Only in this way,can the Agreement on Trade in Service be reached,the development of bilateral trade service be facilitated,and the demand of respective economic development be satisfied.