中国畜产品生产分析预测及饲草发展对策

Forecast of Livestock Producing Capacity and Contermeasures of Forage and Pasture Development in China

对中国畜产品生产能力进行了分析预测,并提出了发展饲草的对策建议。结果表明,(1)近年来中国畜产品生产结构将发生明显改变,生产量将有较大幅度增长。(2)预计未来一定时期,猪肉生产增加缓慢,牛羊肉产量快速增加,2007年和2010年肉类总产量将分别达到8115万t和9150万t;奶牛存栏量和产奶能力将有一定增长,奶类总产量将分别为2462万t和2946万t。(3)中国饲草业将迎来一个快速发展时期,并逐步形成牧区以草地牧草为主、农区饲草和秸秆并重的畜牧原料生产格局。

The producing capacity of livestock in China by term of output of its product was analyzed and forcasted in this paper. The results are as follows： （1） Becauase of the speeding devolopment of hvestock raising, the output of meat significantly increases and the structure of livestock products apparently changes during 1949-2004 in China. （2）According to analysis of the trend of livestock breeding, the output of pork will increase slower than that of beef and mutton in the future. The China output of meat will probably reach 81.15 millon ton and 91.50 millon ton in 2007 and 2010, respectively. The number of milch cow in stalls and the capacity of milk produced per cow will both increase in future. The output of milk produced in China will reach 24.62 millon ton and 29.46 millon ton in 2007 and 2010, respectively. （3） To ensure the goal will be reached, some contermeares ware propesed, including fodder producing layout, enhancement of scientech reseach, etc.