福建省粮食消费情况剖析

Analysis on Grain Consumption in Fujian Province

分析了福建省居民粮食消费情况及未来发展趋势,其中包括城镇居民、农村居民的粮食直接(口粮)、间接(主要为涉及到粮食的畜禽、水产等农产品——饲料粮)消费情况及预测。从分析的结果看,近年来粮食直接消费量呈明显下降趋势,预测2005—2020年间粮食直接消费量还会进一步减少,其间将共减少44.58%,每年以3.86%的速度递减;近年来间接消费量有明显升高,预测2005—2020年间福建年粮食间接消费量增幅达到149.19%,增加了716.49万t。结合福建省粮食的供给状况,计算2005—2020年间,粮食综合生产能力预测值与消费总量(包括直接粮食消费量、间接粮食消费量、种子用粮和工业用粮)之间的差额,结果为:这种差额一直表现为负值,且有明显加大的态势,粮食缺口量绝对值从509.11万t提高到2020年的1143.25万t,每年粮食缺口量的增加幅度达到5.54%。最后,文章提出:作为一个现实和潜在的缺粮大省,福建省有必要做好保证粮食有效供给和提高粮食的产量方面的工作,即要充分挖掘耕地粮食生产潜力、适度增加粮食库存、注重粮食流通体系的提升和保证饲料粮的有效供给等。

The status and development tendency of grain consumption, including the residents in towns and cities in Fujian province, were analyzed. The result showed that the direct-consumption quantity has decreased obviously in recent years and will continue reducing at the rate of 3.86 % per year from 2005 to 2020.By comparison, the quantity of the indirect-consumption has increased recently, the ration will be 149.19% and the increase of grain yield will be 7164900t from 2005 to 2020. According to the supply of grain in Fujian province, the deficit between produce and consumption will be enlarged from 5091100t of 2005 to 11432500t of 2020 with the rate of 5.54 % annually. Finally some advice that ensures the effective supply of grain and increases the grain output is put forward, basing on the shortage of grain yield such as improving agrarian grain the grain potential productivity, increasing grain storage, advancing the system of grain currency.