外汇黑市与NDF市场相关性的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Black Market Exchange Rate and NDF Correlation

在外汇管制的条件下,与我国正式外汇市场并存的还包括境内的外汇黑市和境外的人民币远期不交割合约市场。这两个市场性质和特点均有较大的差异,但二者的汇率变化一定程度受到人民币汇率预期变化的影响,与官方汇率长期稳定情况有很大的差异。对这两个市场的汇率数据分析表明,两个性质和特点差异较大的市场之间的确存在着一定的相关性。

Under the foreign exehange control, there are still two markets as blaek market and so ealled NDF market, While these markets have great differences. Analyzing the exehange rate of two markets, correlation is found, It means basie factors insert influenee across the boarder.