人力资本、生育率与内生农业发展——兼论进入工业化中期阶段后的农业发展动力

Human Capital,Fertility Rate and Endogenous Agricultural Development ——On Impetus to Agricultural Development in the Stage of Medium-term Industrialization

进入工业化、城市化加速发展期,人力资本和生育率的变化成为影响农业发展的重要因素。农业人力资本的改善,将通过提高非农就业概率,加速农业的小部门化进程;将加速农业部门现代要素的引进和生成速度;将提高农业投入的产出弹性,促进部门间的收入均衡。在人力资本投资收益递增时,农业部门生育率的下降,为人力资本的提高创造出有支付能力的需求,因而成为农业发展的支撑条件。由此,应当把加大对农村地区的教育投入作为进入工业化中期阶段后农业发展政策的重点。

Human capital and fertility rate are important factors in agricultural development in the accelerating development stage of industrialization and urbanization. With the growth in chances of rural population employed in non-agriculture departments, the optimization of agricultural human capital will accelerate the course of sectioning agriculture and that of introducing and developing modern factors in agriculture, increase the output of agriculture input, and improve the inter-departmental balance of income. When the investment of human capital increases progressively, the decline in fertility rate of rural population creates affordable demand for human capital improvement, which turns into a supporting condition for agricultural development. Therefore, the focus of the agriculture-development policy should be on strengthening education input for the rural population in the state of medium-term industrialization.