中国工业能源调整的长期战略与短期措施——基于12个主要工业行业能源需求的综列协整分析

Long-run Energy Strategy and Short-run Energy Policies for Chinese Industries: Based on Panel Co-integration Testing for the Energy Demands of 12 Industries

本文以我国工业12个主要行业为横截单元、以各行业1985—2002年的时序数据组成综列数据,建立我国工业能源消费的综列协整模型,通过综列单位根和综列协整检验以及完全修正的OLS估计,研究我国工业各主要行业的能源消费与行业增长的综列协整关系,并基于综列误差校正模型考察短期动态调整效应。结果表明,我国工业各主要行业的能源消费与行业增长和能源效率之间存在长期均衡,且长期均衡具有显著的短期调整效应。基于这一结论所揭示的各行业能源消费的长期和短期特征,本文讨论了我国工业能源的长期战略和短期政策。

This paper constructs the panel energy consumption model and defines the panel data for energy consumption and growth as well as energy efficiency for 12 Chinese industries during 1985—2002. Applying the panel unit root t-bar test by IPS, we have concluded that the panel data is generated by the panel unit root process. Furthermore, this paper estimates the model with FMOLS and tests panel co-integration among three panel variables which describe the model with the LM test proposed by McCoskey and Kao. The results show that there is a panel co-integration relationship among the three panel variables which characterizes the energy consumption of the 12 industries, and PECM indicates a significant short-run adjustment from the panel co-integration, which implies the existence of the panel co-integration again. The conclusions and their implications in this paper can be taken as reference evidence for formulating a long-run energy strategy and short-run energy policies for China.