制度质量、制度距离与双边贸易

Institutional Quality,Institutional Distance and Bilateral Trade

本文分析制度对于双边贸易的影响。将不良制度和制度距离作为隐形贸易成本的两个来源,本文建立了一个包含制度变量的扩展引力模型。以153个国家和地区为样本的经验研究表明,制度质量越差,双边贸易越不活跃;制度距离对于双边贸易起阻碍作用。在制度质量变量中,影响强度较大的是市场规范程度、私有财产保护程度和货币政策;在制度距离变量中,工资控制程度距离、货币政策距离和贸易政策距离的影响强度较大。上述发现对于我国今后对外开放政策的制定和调整有着极其重要的启示和意义。

This paper analyzes the effect of institutions on bilateral trade. By incorporating inferior institution and institutional distance as two sources of implicit trade cost, this paper establishes an extended gravity model. Based on the theoretical model, investigating a bilateral trade sample between 153 countries and regions, the empirical results indicate that good quality of institution promotes bilateral trade and institutional distance reduces bilateral trade. Furthermore, marketization, private asset protection and monetary policy arc more sensitive to trade among institution quality, and wage control distance, monetary policy distance and trade policy distance are more sensitive to trade among institutional distance. The above findings have important implications to the making and adjustment of China＇s open-door pollicy in the near future.