摘要
汇率失衡及其调整,通过流动性效应、预期效应、财富效应、溢出效应以及信贷扩张或收缩效应等影响房地产价格。国际经验表明,汇率冲击是房地产泡沫演化的一个诱因,但并不必然引发房地产泡沫。事实上,近年来人民币升值预期和人民币升值压力的货币化,加剧了房地产泡沫。但在建立有管理的浮动汇率制度过程中的人民币小幅升值不会诱致房地产泡沫膨胀或崩溃。
Exchange rate disequilibrium and adjustment will affect the price of real estate by liquidity effect, expectation effect, wealth effect, spill-over effect, and credit expansion or depression effect. International experience shows that exchange rate shock will, but not necessarily, lead to the bubble of real estate. In fact, the expectation and pressure of RMB appreciation aggravate the bubble of real estate. But, when building the manageable floating system of exchange rate, small amount of appreciation will not blow up the bubble.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第7期38-43,共6页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(05JA790036)
江苏省哲学社会科学研究"十五"规划基金项目(04ELB007)
关键词
汇率冲击
房地产泡沫
不可能三角
国际经验
政策取向
exchange rate shock
bubble of real estate
impossible triangle
international experience
policy orientation
