政府公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应

The Effects of Government Public Capital Investment on Long-Run Economic Growth

本文首先建立一个包含政府公共资本投资的两部门内生增长模型,并把公共资本投资分为政府物质资本投资和人力资本投资,从而对公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应进行理论分析。结论是,两种形式的公共资本投资对长期经济增长都可能具有正效应也可能具有负效应,取决于民间经济主体消费跨时替代弹性大小。其次,我们利用向量自回归分析框架,对我国1978—2004年间公共资本投资对长期经济增长的影响作实证分析。结论是,我国两种形式的公共资本投资与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系,其中政府公共物质资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响更为显著,而政府公共人力资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响较小,且在短期内不利于经济增长。这一结论对我国今后科学制定财政政策和选择公共投资领域都具有重要意义。

This paper analyzes the mechanics of government public capital investment on long-run economic growth by setting up a two-sector endogenous growth model containing government public capital investment and dividing public capital investment to government physical capital investment and human capital investment. The theoretical analysis suggests both forms of government public capital investment may have positive or negative effects on long-run economic growth depending on the size of private agents＇ intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption. On the other hand, We use VAR approach to analyze the effects of government public capital investment on long-run economic growth based on annual data for the period from 1978 to 2004 in China. The positive analysis suggests that there are long-run equilibrium relations among both forms of government public capital investment and economic growth, while government physical capital investment have significant positive effects on long-run economic growth, government human capital investment have relative smaller positive effects on long-run economic growth and have negative effects on economic growth in short term, which has significant implications for macroeconomic policy and public capital investment fields selecting in China.