宏观经济波动周期的测度

Measuring China's Business Cycles

目前关于中国宏观经济波动的争论很多,而且分析一般都基于2005年全国经济普查之前的统计数据作为研究对象,这必然会对分析结果造成不良的影响。为了更准确地分析中国宏观经济波动背后的成因,首先要明确历次经济波动周期的起止时期。本文比较了目前国际上公认比较成熟的四种方法,分别是线形趋势法、H-P滤波法、Band-Pass滤波法和生产函数法,对我国1952—2005年的数据进行分析,使用了2005年全国经济普查之后的统计数据,分别估计出了改革开放以后出现过的经济波动周期的起止时间。通过对这四种方法各自的优点和存在的问题进行分析,经过相互验证,笔者估算出历次宏观经济波动的起止时期,这将为进一步分析历次宏观经济波动背后的成因打下必要的基础。

At present, there are a great deal of controversies over the c fluctuations of China, and generally speaking, those papers are all based on the data available before the census on China＇s economy in 2005, which will definitely bring about some negative influence to the result of the investigation. In order to analyze the contributing factors of the c fluctuations of China more precisely, in the first place, we define the beginning and ending periods of each. And this paper has made a comparison between the four methods, which are currently considered to be mature in international community, uamely, Linear Trend Method, H-P Filter, Band-Pass Fiher and Production Functions Method. These methods are used to analyze the data during the period from 1952-2005. Besides, the paper has used the data after the 2005 census on China＇s economy, and estimated respectively the beginning and ending periods of the business cycles occurred after the reform and opening to the outside world. Through analyzing the advantages and existing problems of the four methods respectively and verifying each other, the author finally manages to figure out the beginning and ending periods of each macroeconomic fluctuation in previous occasions in China, which will make a necessary foundation for further analyzing the contributing factors of each fluctuation.