中国区域经济发展差异及其原因的多尺度分析

Multi-Scale Analysis on China's Regional Economical Diversity and Reasons

本文采用经验模态方法对中国1953—2002年区域经济发展差异进行多尺度分析,并对不同尺度的区域经济差异的原因进行探讨。研究表明,50年来中国区域经济差异波动主要以60年尺度、17.5年尺度和趋势为主,近期区域差异呈扩大趋势。从不同尺度生产要素投入差异和区域差异的关系看,要素投入差异会引起区域差异,区域差异也会引起要素投入环境差异并引发要素投入差异的变化,在制定区域政策时应考虑区域差距波动的短期性和长期性。

Based on the empirical mode decomposition, this paper analyses the regional economical diversity （RED） in China from 1953 to 2002, and primarily discusses the cause resulting in RED with different scale on the view of production factor. The results of the research show that RED fluctuation in China takes 60-year scale, 17.5-year scale and trend as the principal part. RED enlargement in these major scales will lead to the government attention. When analyzing the mutual relationship between factor investment discrepancy and RED, we should recognize the regional discrepancy resulted from factor investment discrepancy and the change of factor investment discrepancy resulted from environment discrepancy of factor investment, and should pay more attention to the long-term effect by employed persons and investment discrepancy. When formulating the regional policies, the short-term and long-term RED should be taken into account from the point of view of discrepancy fluctuation among the regions.