应计利润计量偏差及对识别盈余管理的影响——基于计量信息相关性分析和中国制造业上市公司经验验证

Accrual Measurements Errors and impact on Detect Earning Managements:——Relevance Analysis and Empirical Evidences from China's listed Manufacturing Firms

应计利润反映了收付实现制与权责发生制的差异,应计利润的计量在会计理论和实证研究中有很广泛的应用。本文通过分析两种广泛采用的应计利润计量方法发现,在我国现行会计制度下,这些方法所产生的计量结果与因权责发生制而产生的应计利润不存在完全的相关性。我们探讨了由此而产生的计量偏差及对判断盈余管理行为的影响。经验验证的结果表明:在截面 Jones 修正模型下,(1)以上计量方法产生的反常应计利润是盈余管理的有偏估量,可能导致在判断盈余管理行为时发生第一类和第二类错误;(2)修正计量方法所产生的计量结果更合乎应计利润的概念,体现出更好的相关性;产生的反常应计利润能更准确地反映盈余管理行为。

Accruals reflect the difference of cash basis accounting versus accrual accounting and measurements of accrual play a central role in wide bodies of accounting literatures.Our relevance analysis suggests that under the China Accounting Standards,two widely applied accrual meas- urement methods will result in biased estimations of accruals.Our empirical study also indicates,when modified Jones model is applied,the measurement errors are captured by discretionary accruals and likely result in type Ⅰ and type Ⅱ errors.Moreover,in our research,the modi- fied measurement methods demonstrate higher specification and sensitivity to detect earning management.