2008年北京奥运会志愿者人力资源需求预测

A Prediction of the Demand for Volunteers Human Resource in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

一次奥运会的成功举办少不了大量志愿者的工作，而志愿者的数量预测又是组建一支奥运会志愿者团队的首要任务。因此本文运用文献资料法、数理统计法、专家访问、个案研究法对2008年北京奥运会志愿者人力资源需求预测进行了研究，旨在为奥运会志愿者的需求提供一个较为准确的数据。研究结果表明：1）现有奥运志愿者预测方式存在问题主要有：不准确、变动大、不科学；2）预测方法：趋势外推预测法；3）预测的过程主要包括：收集数据、拟合曲线、预测模型的筛选；4）模型分析：一是模型对历史数据的拟合，二是模型对未来趋势的表现；5）预测模型的确定：二次曲线模型；6）最后得出志愿者人力资源需求预测结果：55783-82631人。

The work of a great many volunteers is necessary for a successful Olympic Game. The first step to organize the Olympic volunteers group is to predict the human resource demand of Olympic volunteers. By means of literature review, mathematical statistics ,interviews with experts and case studies ,this paper intends to make a demand prediction of the human resource of the Olympic volunteers for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games so as to provide a relatively accurate datum of the demand of volunteers. The result of the research is shown as follows： 1） The disadvantages of current prediction methods are inaccurate, fluctuant and unscientific. 2） The selected way of predicting human resource demand is Trend Projection. 3） The process of prediction includes data collection, fitting a curve and selection from predicting mathematical models. 4） Model analysis from two aspects：whether the forecast result fits the historical data and whether the forecast result fits the tendency to develop. 5） The final selected prediction model：the curve of second order. 6） The forecasted result of the number of 2008 Olympic volunteers in demand is 55783-82631.