摘要
基于多年的调查资料，利用全过程流行速率模拟叶枯性病害流行动态，同时筛选出四个主效因子，并用四个主效因子进行几种预测方法的比较，结果是以回归预测准确率最高并建立了蜡熟期病指的回归预测式：Ｙ＝－２３．８６０２＋１１．０３４６ｘ１＋０．６１７５ｘ２－６．３７８６ｘ３－０．
Based on the historical data,leaf blight woudenuc trend was simulated with apparent infection rate.Meanwhile,some prediction method was with four screened, regressional equaion of disease index at wax the best.Then a established with four screened factors:Y=-23.8602+11.0346X1+0.6175X2-6.3786X30.1263X4
出处
《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》
1996年第4期111-118,共8页
journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university
关键词
小麦
叶枯性病害
预测
回归法
Wheat
Leaf blight woudenuc
Prediction method
Regeessional equaion
