广西暴雨过程的V-3θ结构特征检验及预报应用

THE VERIFICATION OF V-3θ STRUCTURE CHARATERISTICS AND ITS APPLICATION IN RAINSTORM FORECASTING IN GUANDXI

本文按溃变原理的非规则结构信息分析方法，对广西1988～2004年290场10站以上的暴雨过程进行了检验分析和预测应用。结果表明：暴雨前12～36h，各探空站的V-3θ结构信息图对锋面暴雨、锋前暖区暴雨、孟湾风暴暴雨、副高边缘暴雨和西南低涡暴雨等均可分析出明显的前兆特征，体现了共同的基本机制，并集中地表现为整体顺滚流、超低温和中低空的充沛水汽条件。经过历史检验和近两年的预报应用，已经作为转折性暴雨预报的主要参考依据之一，并已投入日常预报业务中。

Application of prediction was undertaken by examining 290 regional rainstorms process happened at 10 stations in Guangxi within 24h for the period of 1988～2004,according to the non-regular information analysis of blow-up theory. It showed that about 12～36 hours before the rainstorms were caused by the front, the tropical storms moving from the Bay of Bengal, the SW vortexes,and occurred in warmingzone ahead of cold front,in the southwestern edge-zone of subtropical high and the like, the V-3θ plots of Guangxi＇s six upper-air sounding stations showed an obviously precursory signal and presented the same essential mechanism which was focused on in whole deasil wind , super-low temperature , plentiful vapor at middle and low-level pressure. Now the blow-up system is making good use in daily forecasting and played a major role in predicting the rainstorms under the condition of fast changes of the weather after our prooftesting for two years.