中国服务贸易周期波动的实证分析

A Positive Analysis on the Cyclical Fluctuations of Trade in Services in China

本文用增长率直接法、增长率趋势法分析了中国服务贸易的短周期、中周期和中长周期波动,并结合GDP长波采用协整分析方法研究了中国服务贸易的长波特征。研究结果表明,1982年以来的中国服务贸易经历了8次短周期波动、3次中周期波动 (其中目前的第3次中周期波动具有适度高位平滑的特征)、2次中长周期波动(目前正处于第2次中长周期波动的扩张期),服务贸易长波与GDP长波具有基本相同的特征。

This paper analyses the short cycle, medium cycle and medium-long cycle of trade in services in China using the methods of direct growth rate and growth rate trend, and studies the long wave characteristics contacting with the long wave of GDP using cointegration method. It shows that from 1982 the services trade of China goes through eight short cycles, three medium cycles, two medium-long cycles, and one long wave which are of similar characteristics as the long wave of GDP.