双线性模型模拟洪水的尝试

A New Model for Flood Generation ──bilinear time series model

为了表征洪水随时间变化的非线性，本文首次将一种非线性模型──双线性模型引入随机水文学。文中介绍了该模型的形式和参考估计方法并金色沙江屏山站洪水为对象作了实例分析，结果表明该模型是可行的。

A new model for flood generation──bilinear time series model has been introduced into the stochastic hydrology so that the nonlinear behavior of flood varing with time could be characterized.The simple structure of the model and its parameter estimation are presented in this paper. Moreover, as a case study the model is applied to the stochastic generation of flood hydrographes at Ping Shan station .The results have shown that the model may be functional in the stochastic hydrology.