宁夏宏观经济发展预测模型的建立与应用

Establishment and Application of The Prediction Model of Macro-Economic Development in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

以经济学为理论基础,以计量经济学为工具,建立起适用于宁夏的宏观经济发展预测模型,并对宁夏未来30年的社会经济发展状况进行预测,分析了地区经济的发展趋势、投资、产业结构及人口发展状况。结果表明,宁夏经济将保持较高的发展速度,到2020年人均GDP可达到2.5×104元,是2000年的5倍;相对于以往人口的高速增长状况,预测年份会逐渐放缓,但仍然高于我国的平均增长水平;现状宁夏投资率较高,随着经济的发展,居民生活水平的不断提高,这一比重会逐渐降低。预测结果为地区的水资源合理配置提供了基础资料,并为地区政府制定经济发展规划提供了指导性依据,预测成果已被地区的十一五经济发展规划所采纳。

There are many methods to predict the economic development, such as subjective pre-measurement, time series pre-measurement, model pre-measurement and so on. The first one is wildly used in the situation that is short of exact data; the second is used when the data have relationship with the time series; and the third is adopted in the situation that there are internal links among the data. This paper uses the model pre-measurement to predict the status of economic development in Ningxia Hui autonomous region. Based on the theory of econometrics, a model for forecasting Ningxia macro-economy development in the future was developed and the economic development, investment, industrial structure and population status in Ningxia were analyzed. It was predicted that Ningxia would maintain high growth speed of economy, and per capita GDP would reach 25 000 Yuan RMB, which is 5 times of that in the year 2000 ; the population growth would slowdown; The rate of investment in Ningxia would decline along with the economical development; the resident living standard would unceasing increase. The prediction results provide a basis for the rational water resources allocation and the government planning.