基于MFA方法的陕西省物质减量化分析

Analyzing Dematerialization of Shaanxi Province based on MFA

运用MFA方法,依据欧盟统计局推荐的MFA基本指标和Schmidt-Bleek关于可持续发展的指标,设计了5类9个指标及7种可以直接采集数据的变量;在分析陕西省1996年～2003年生产、消费领域的物质输入、输出量的相关数据的基础上,推导并描述了陕西省当前发展阶段的物质输入、输出相关变量的函数关系；预测了陕西省物质输入、输出的发展态势.进一步证明了下述结论：①陕西省经济增长方式表现出典型的粗放型特征；②陕西省经济发展的弱可持续性趋势明显；③陕西省物质减量的潜力巨大.认为如果陕西省不从根本上改变现行经济增长方式,物质生产力将面临持续下降趋势。因此，发展循环经济,转变经济增长方式,实行源头控制,以期减少物质投入,提高物质利用强度,是陕西省实现可持续发展的根本途径。

The method of material flow analysis （MFA） has been applied to study the material input and output throughout the field of production and consumption of Shaanxi province from 1996 to 2003. Based on basic indicators recommended by Eurostat and Schmidt-Bleek, five types of indicators were used in this study. This study indicates the functional relation between the variables of material input and that of output and forecasts the development trend of material input and output. The results shown： 1 ） The economic growth mode still presents extensive character from 1996 to 2003. Average annual output of material accounts for 68.23 percent of the corresponding input in Shaanxi province. That is to say, the utilization ratio of material of the Shaanxi economic system is only 31.77 %. The energy input is growing more rapidly than other solid material input with an average annum growth rate of 10.32 percent; 2） MFA Indicators such as Direct Material Input （DMI）, Domestic Material Consumption （DMC）, Domestic Processed Output （DPO）, and Direct Material Output （DMO） all represent an increased trend, and the growth rate all exceeded that of GDP. Material Input per unit service （MIPS）, Eco-toxic disposal equivalent per unit service （TOPS） don＇t present absolute descend trend; Surface Input per unit service （FIPS） decline gradually; the service per unit material input （S/MI） represent stable state and the service per unit surface （S/FI） maintain steady growth; 3 ） Dematerialization analysis shown that the dematerialization effect of all the material presents an accelerated increase from 1997 to 1999; 4） There is a large potential for dematerialization. According to the assumption that the productivity in 2023 is four or ten times as that in 2003, the average annum growth rate will be 7.18 or 12.20 percent. But the average annual growth rate from 1996 to 2003 is minus 2.77 percent according to the result of this study. Therefore, the productivity will represent continuous decline trend if current economic growth mode was not changed essentially. So it is obligatory to develop circular economy, change economic growth mode and implement headstream control to decrease the material input and increase efficiency of resource use in Shaanxi economic development and it is a fundamental way to realize sustainable development.