基于区域发展的矿产资源最优耗竭量模型构建

Modeling Reasonable Consumption of Mineral Resources based on Regional Development

本文从影响区域矿产资源最优耗竭量的社会经济发展需求因素、区域资源基础及潜力因素、资源开发利用的能力和水平因素、区域生态环境承载力因素、资源安全储备因素、区域外资源可供性因素、配套资源及基础设施的支持因素的分析入手,建立了包含目标层A、指标层B和指标层C3个层次及23个具体分析指标在内的确定区域矿产资源最优耗竭度的分析评价指标体系。在充分考虑到各影响因素正常情况和可能存在强约束因素作用的基础上,建立了用于分析和测度一定时期内区域矿产资源最优耗竭度的数学评价模型。就河北省矿产资源的最优耗竭问题进行了具体的实证分析,并结合本省未来各主要矿产种类的不同需求方案,确定了合理的资源耗竭量,为合理规划和调整区域矿产资源开发利用战略提供了有益参考。

This study establishes an indicator system for evaluating the reasonable consumption of regional mineral resources based on the analysis of a series of influence indicators such as the demand of social and economic development, available and potential regional resources, resource exploiting capability, environment impact, safe reserves of the resources, available resources supply outside the region, subsidiary resources and infrastructure. The indicator system includes three levels and 23 concrete indicator for determining the analytical evaluation system of regional reasonable mineral resources consumption, which are target series A： regional reasonable mineral resources consumption）; indicator series B ： demand resources supply （ B 1 ）, resources reserve assurance （B2）, environment impact （B3）, safe reserves （B4）, social economic support （B5）, outside resources supply （B6） ; and indicator series C： production power supply, reserves supply, basic reserves supply, resources supply; mineralization assurance, resources prospecting support, prospecting techniques assurance; environment hazard sustentation, pollution sustentation, environment governance support; safe production power, safe reserves, safe basic reserves, safe resource maintenance, ; capital support, technological support, subsidiary resources support, infrastructure support, safe new reserves; resource support feasibility, resource supply capability, resource supply cost, resource supply risk. On the basis of taking consideration of various normal influence factors and possible constrains, a mathematic evaluation model was established for determining the reasonable consumption of regional resources with a definite period. An empirical study was made for the issue of reasonable consumption of mineral resources in Hebei, and reasonable resource consumption was proposed in accordance with the requirement of different types of resources in Hebei. It is indicated that the reasonable consumption should be controlled within 57.8 % ～ 64.5 % of the annual requirement for coal, 51.0 % ～ 66.9 % for iron ore, 51.6 % ～ 66.3 %, 62.7 % ～ 71.4% and 65.1% ～ 73.1% for copper, lead and zinc ores respectively. For the cement limestone, glass sandstone and pottery clay ores, their reasonable consumption should be controlled within 84.6 % ～ 99.3 %, 83.9 % ～94.5 % and 79.6 % ～ 96.4 % of the annual requirement respectively. The reasonable consumption of gold deposit should be limited within the 84.7 % ～97.2 % of the planning exploitation. Taking consideration of regional available and potential resources, exploitation and utilization level, ecological environment impact, safe reserves, outside supply, subsidiary resources and infrastructure, authors reasonably determine the resource consumption rate and make out the planning and designing of regional resources supply system started from the viewpoint of resources consumption requirement which should ensure the sustainable development of social economy. In fact, this study is a construction of resources supply system based on the sustainable operation of regional resource system. The purpose of this study is to optimize the time arrangement and to provide a reference for planning and adjusting the resource exploitation and utilization strategies.