国际分工演化过程模拟实验研究

A Simulation of the Evolution Process of International Specialization

文章提供了一个基于主体的开放经济模型———ASMEC-O,用于研究国际分工的演化过程。在国际贸易中,经济主体之间的相互作用内生地决定了国际分工的演化过程,而国际分工的演化过程又会对经济主体的行为产生深刻影响。经济主体应用分类器系统来选择正确的行为规则。我们应用该模型分别进行了在不完全竞争和规模递增假设下,比较利益和路径依赖情况下形成国际分工演化过程的模拟实验。实验结果表明:在两国存在资源禀赋差异的条件下,比较利益和规模经营是形成国际分工的自然原因;在两国不存在资源禀赋差异的条件下,路径依赖也是形成国际分工的重要原因。

This paper provides an agent-based open economy model AS- MEC-O to investigate the evolution process of international specialization. As far as international trade is concerned, interactions among economic agents internally determine the evolution process of international specialization; simultaneously, the latter will also dramatically effect the agents＇ behaviors. Economic agents use classifier systems to decide on the appropriate acting rules. Therefore, authors use this model to simulate the specialization under the condition of comparative advantages and path dependence with the hypothesis of incomplete competition and scale economy. The simulation resuits prove that： when countries show differences in resources, comparative advantages and scale economy are the natural causes of international specialization; while there is no difference in resources; path dependence becomes the main reason for the specialization.