张家川县牧业生产经济动态的前景预测

Mathematic Models and Propects Foremeasures Husbandry Production Economic Trends in Zhangjiachuan County

从张家川四十六年的畜牧业生产经济数据中,定性地提出了牧业生产的四个阶段,即低速波动段、干扰徘徊段、高速发展段、协调稳定段。并对这几个阶段建立了一系列的动态分析数学模型,借此模型定量地分析和预测了该县牧业生产的状况及前景,并提出了合理的资源利用强度,为今后张家川县牧业生产提供了科学的决策依据。

We proposed the four stages of husbandry production on the baseas of husbandry production economic datas of fourtysix years in Zhangjiachuan county, that are lowspeed wave's, interfere flctuate,highspeed development and coordination stable stages. A series of trends analysing mathematic models were founded for those stages. The conditions and prospectives have been analysed and foremeasured of the county in the light of the models quantitatively ,resoures utilization densities also being given reasonably. The treatise provided scientific bases for advancing husbandry production of Zhangjiachuan county.