是总量失衡还是结构性失衡——如何解释中国当前的宏观经济现象

Aggregate Disequilibrium or Structural Imbalance? An Interpretation of Macroeconomic Situation

对于中国当前宏观经济形势,本文认为用“流动性过剩”和采取总量均衡分析方法,不能准确地解释当前中国出现的各种宏观经济现象。作者运用现代奥地利经济学的分析框架对当前宏观经济形势重新分析后认为,中国宏观经济所面临的不是总量失衡,而是结构性失衡,是货币市场的不均衡,加剧了经济结构的失衡。并特别分析了政府宏观经济调控政策的效果,提示了中国宏观经济的潜在风险。

Aggregate Disequilibrium or Structural Imbalance？This paper argues that the analyzing methods of ＇Liquidity Surplus＇ and ＇aggregate equilibrium＇ may not be appropriate in explaining the phenomena of current macro-economy of China. By applying the theory of Austrian School, this article reexamines the situation of Chinese macro^economy and insists Chinese macro-economy is not in a situation of ＇aggregate disequilibrium＇, but is the structural imbalance in aggregate demand. And it is disequilibrium in monetary market that aggravates disequilibrium of macro-economy structure.